Plan seasonal markdowns backward from the last commercially useful selling date. Reserve time for data review, merchandising fixes, two or more bounded markdown observation windows, and a final exit decision. Segment products by remaining quantity, recent pace, margin, and carryover potential rather than applying one percentage to the entire collection.
Work backward from the real deadline
The last selling date is not always the calendar end of a season. It is the date after which normal demand, shelf life, assortment relevance, or storage economics change enough to require a different action.
Start there and reserve four phases:
- Diagnosis: validate stock, pace, and merchandising.
- Early intervention: improve placement, content, or distribution.
- Measured markdowns: test bounded sale prices with observation windows.
- Exit: make the final keep, carry, transfer, or clearance decision.
Example twelve-week plan
| Weeks remaining | Decision |
|---|---|
| 12 | Review quantity, value, pace, incoming stock, and product visibility |
| 10 | Fix merchandising and stop unnecessary replenishment |
| 8 | Launch first approved markdown for selected variants |
| 6 | Stop successful campaigns; escalate only unmet goals |
| 4 | Run final measured step or alternative offer |
| 2 | Execute the preselected exit for remaining units |
The schedule is illustrative. The correct windows depend on traffic and purchase frequency.
Segment the assortment
Do not put every seasonal product into one campaign. Separate:
- healthy pace with low remaining quantity;
- healthy pace but excess quantity;
- weak pace with strong carryover potential;
- weak pace with no carryover value;
- new or low-evidence products;
- stranded variants within otherwise healthy products.
Each segment deserves a different action and maximum discount.
Account for carryover
Some products can return next season with little loss of relevance. Compare expected future margin with storage, handling, damage, and working-capital costs. Carryover is not free, but clearance is not automatically cheaper.
Protect brand and customer expectations
Repeated predictable clearance can train customers to wait. Keep markdown timing connected to genuine inventory objectives, and avoid changing stated terms mid-campaign.
Forecast carefully
Shopify describes demand forecasting as estimating future orders while accounting for promotions, launches, and discontinuations. Use historical comparisons, but annotate exceptional events so a promotion-heavy year does not become an unquestioned baseline.
Close the loop with buying
At season end, record which variants became excess, when the signal appeared, purchase-order assumptions, and response at each action. A markdown process that never changes future buying repeats the same problem.
Frequently asked questions
When should an end-of-season sale start?
Start planning early enough to preserve at least one or two meaningful observation windows before the final selling deadline. The exact date depends on the category, traffic, and carryover value.
Should all seasonal products get the same discount?
No. Segment by pace, quantity, margin, variant imbalance, and carryover potential. Discounting healthy products can waste margin.
Should seasonal stock be held until next year?
Compare expected future recovery with storage, handling, deterioration, obsolescence, and working-capital costs. The answer is product- and business-specific.
Sources and further reading
- Shopify Help Center: Forecasting orders
- Shopify Help Center: Inventory reports
- Shopify Help Center: Profit reports
Product interfaces and documentation change. Sources were checked on July 22, 2026.
PUT THE METHOD TO WORK
Review slow movers before they become clearance.
Sale House detects weak selling pace and runs merchant-approved markdown steps with price floors, caps, and stopping rules.
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